BJP is finally getting more footage across all networks, than the ruling Indian National Congress. But it would be safe to assume that the party would have preferred a complete media blackout instead of the kind of headlines they are making now. The party with a difference has now become the party of differences as no one knows from where the next revolt will come from. But why is it in such a state?
The reason can be best found in cricket. After AB Vajpayee & LK Advani’s golden generation, there came a series of players who would play well but could not captain the side. Sehwag, Zahir or Yuvaraj where all there but none were able to take over the reigns. And till one Dhoni came from nowhere to rescue the team, there was serious doubt over what would happen once the fab 5 left. But unlike our cricket team, BJP have not been as lucky in finding the skipper.
The leaders after the two patriarchs have only grown in their shadow. Yashwant Singha, Jaswant Singh & Murli Manohar Joshi belong to that lost generation who were important enough to get the prime portfolios but just did not have the mass base or the organizational capability to control the party. In fact all of them failed in the litmus taste of politics- winning election. Both Singha and Joshi lost their respective seats even while fighting as ministers while Jaswant Singh for most part of his life remained in Rajya Sabha. And by the time the two patriarchs are on their way out… these leaders are too old to get the mantle. But these leaders are not ready to accept that this truth and there in lies the first problem.
Thus to succeed the two tall men, the young nation would seek young leaders and hence is the glee of those who are called the second generation within the party. This space includes Rajnath Singh, Sushma Swaraj, Arun Jaitley, Narendra Modi & to some extent Venkaih Naidu and Ananth Kumar. In the late nineties the party did not nurture anyone as the first among the equals amidst them and hence the second big problem for the party is that all of them want to be the next face of the party.
Rajnath Singh, the current party president has odds stacked against him. Apart from the defeat in the Lok Sabha polls, his inability to revive the party in Uttar Pradesh is seen as a major failure. After all if a leader cannot revive the party in his home state, can he be entrusted with the job of reviving it nationally? But Rajnath too isn’t giving up. His counter strategy is to use RSS as the shield. Today he can be seen marking his attendance in the Sangh office almost everyday.
Sushma Swaraj some say had it all in her to get the top job. But first her histrionics against Sonia Gandhi in 2004 (she said she will tonsure her head, sleep on the floor and live a life on a hermit if Sonia became the PM) and then her illness which kept her out of the public space for much of the last term, can act as deterrents. Even then the deputy leader of Lok Sabha is one of the strongest contenders. LK Advani’s blessings for her would only add to her resume.
Now comes the dynamic duo of Narendra Modi and Arun Jaitley. Both blamed for the defeat in the 2009 general elections. Jaitley was the campaign manager and though CSDS survey did find out that the campaign managed by Jaitley was a shade better than congress, he too has to share his share of the blame. And Modi as the incharge of Western India could not really galvanize voters to turn the election in BJP’s favour. More over even RSS isn’t too keen on him. Both of them are lying low at this moment and waiting for the right moment to strike. Both the leaders are perceived to be close to each other. Their styles are complementary as well. While Jaitley would manage the back room and be the face of the party in Tele Studios, Modi would work on the masses.
Adding to this long list of successor is the Patriarch himself. Unlike AB Vajpayee, Advani is just refusing to vacate the space. The permanent yatri of Indian politics is a pale shadow of his past and with his grip slipping, the party needs him to make the final yatra sooner than later.
But claimant for the top spot is not the only problem. The strong right to the centre approach which propelled the party to the national reckoning in the early 90s too can do with some up gradation. The victim mentality of the majority which the saffron party capitalized to the hilt in the late 80s and the early 90s cannot be minted anymore. Mandir has been made. And this assertion in a way has cured the insecurity (if any) of what the Sangh would like to call the majority of the heartland. Now it is the time to move on. Take up greater - security, immigration, food scarcity and develop a liberal right to centre ideology on these lines. But the party isn’t too sure about this bold move. This constructs the third major problem of BJP, dilemma of what it is and what it should be.
All the problems, revolts and the infightings you will see can be sourced to the reasons mentioned above. Rajnath needed to reassert his position so he fired the softest target Jaswant Singh. A man who neither has the mass following nor had the support of the Sangh. Vasundhara Raje being asked to quit was an attempt at stifling competition. Sudhendra Kulkarni has been in and off through out the last decade and hence much should not be read into that. And the earlier salvos fired by Yashwant Singha and Murli Manohar Joshi too were attempts at tell the world “ I am the best one for the top job”. And the journalist in Arun Shourie couldn’t help but wonder at this ongoing crisis. Amidst all this the former Uttaranchal CM Khanduri too found a chance to challenge his dismissal.
At the moment there is no clear centre of gravity in the party and hence almost every one can get away after challenging the leadership. This however is no rare situation, whenever a party goes through a period of transition; such succession wars are but natural. This might not happen to a Congress because it is controlled by a particular family but a look at the world’s democracies is enough to find similarities. For the records Gordon Brown and Tony Blair didn’t have the most cordial of the relationships when Brown was moving his way up to replace Blair in England.
But this war can turn downright dangerous for the party if it is not resolved well in time for the next general elections. The war now is for the post of party president. This will be filled up by December. But what is highly questionable is whether this election will solve the proxy battles going on right now. It is highly probable that the silence of Modi and Jaitley is because they are not interested in controlling the party right now. They are probably aiming at gaining control somewhere two or three years down the line, when the tenure of the, new party chief ends. The advantage for the next president is that he will be the one to lead the party in the next general election to be held in the year 2014. So will the anarchy within the party continue till then? The game is too complex to hazard a guess
But there are a few pertinent questions which the squabbling leaders need to keep in mind. Is the party strong enough to sustain such a long internal battle? Will they be able to play a responsible opposition when their own house is on fire? How will it affect the party cadres? Do the cadres know who to follow? And above all what will be the new face of the only credible opposition force of the Indian democracy?
As of now, we all stare at the future as only time can answer these questions. Any further decline of BJP is a serious threat to the Indian democracy’s loosely bipolar structure. Let us hope for the best…succession wars are always bitter but may the best man (/woman) win and propel the party to a higher growth trajectory. Most importantly do it fast enough to be ready for the 2014 general elections. And if he/she can give the party an inclusive outlook, it would be an added bonus. Till such time…adieu!
