A FRAGMENTED NATION STATE?

The time has come to choose the ruler of the nation. India will vote again in another two months and choose whom to thrust the responsibility of running the central government. But unlike the other years, this time the verdict of a billion voters has been relegated to the battle of states. The party or the coalition which picks up stakes in most number of states (with due importance given to their sizes) stands the brightest chance to rule over the Delhi Sultanate. This election has no wave, no major national issue and no starkly opposite stance taken by the two camps, namely the UPA and the NDA. It looks like the modern day nation state has begun to resemble Eliot’s modern man… fragmented.
The unitary nature of our federal structure is losing out to its constituents

Almost every election till date in the history of Indian democracy have had a major plank, person, an issue or a cluster of issues which made or broke the fortunes of the parties… 1951 was the first vote, a newly independent nation woke up to choose their destiny. 1956 was a referendum on Nehru himself. The Sino-Indo war was the theme of 1962 ( the defense minister actually ended up winning !). 1967 was an election in mourning, with both Nehru and Lal bahadur Shastri dead. For 1971 ‘India is Indira & Indira is India’ says it all. 1977, the nation voted against emergency. But Indira, the Iron Maiden made a comeback in1980. In 1984-85 (first election split in 2 years due to the violence in Assam and Punjab) huge sympathy wave for Rajiv ensured congress more than 400 seats. After Mother’s death, it was for the son stir the nation out of crisis. 1989 was powered by bofors and ‘Gali gali main shoor hai…Rajiv Gandhi Chor hai’ became the slogan of the day. In 1991, Congress won again on a sympathy vote, Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated just before the election. 1996 will remain in public memory for Hawala, Telecom and a basket full of other scams. In 1998, the theme was stability‘Party With a Difference-BJP’ became the favourite flavour. 1999 elections had a jingoistic tone, as India won the Kargil battle and of course was the charisma of Atal Vihari Vajpayee. Finally 2004 when a government asked for a receipt of its performance (India Shining), and the nation returned the favour with an eviction notice.

And now 2009- There is no dearth of issues of national significance…especially at the wake of the Global Meltdown and 26/11 attacks. But this Lok Sabha election is yet to assume a national character. Each state has an issue of its own. It is Satyam and Telengana in Andra Pradesh, Tamil sentiments in Tamil Nadu, land acquisition in Bengal, effects of economic meltdown in Gujarat and ethenic divide in Assam…etc.

But why is India’s political map so fragmented? The blame more often than not goes to the regional parties, which cash in on the local sentiments of each segment is this diverse nation called India. This trend started during the 1980s and has almost reached its zenith in these polls. But there is another aspect which is often overlooked, but has contributed heavily in decentralizing the general elections. It is no surprise that after Rajiv Gandhi there has been not a single leader with a pan Indian appeal. Atal Bihari Vajpayee did emerge as one but that was for a brief period, that too towards the fag end of his political career. Apart from that there has been none. The current Prime Ministerial candidates are clearly second or even third choice of their respective parties. Dr Manmohan Singh’s name emerged after a process of rejection, rather than selection. Mother refused the post, son was too inexperienced and Pranab Mukherjee, could have become too powerful. Hence, came the name of a non-political Dr Singh, his qualifications and the clean image was to come only after that. LK Advani too could aspire for the PM’s post only after Vajpayee retired from the game. Even now one Mr Modi is fast emerging as a potential challenger in the long run. It looks as if the two national parties simply do not have a first choice national leader, ready for the top job

Now if we go back in the history again, we will see most of the elections had the shadow of at least one pan Indian mass leader (living or dead). From 1951 to 1962, there was the towering presence of Jawahar Lal Nehru, 1967 had Nehru, Lal Bahadur Shastri ( both dead) and Indira’s presence., 1971 to 1984, had Indira Gandhi. 1977 saw Jay Prakash Narayan- Indira face off, 1984 to 1991 Rajiv Gandhi and finally AB Vajpayee in 1998, 1999 and 2004 elections.


But this time we only have strong regional figures. They are powerful but only in their own bastions. Mayawati, now that she has Uttar Pradesh in her pocket she is aiming a pan Indian presence. Though her national ambition is yet to take off fully, no one can challenge behenji in her own backyard. Karunanidhi and Jayalalitha, the awesome twosome of Tamil Nadu, they rule the state in alternate terms, dare any national party break into their citadel. Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad have Bihar to themselves, with a slice of Paswan thrown in. Bal Thakeray rules over Maharastra and for that matter Abdullahs and Mufti’s hold in Jammu and Kashmir exemplary.

Even the two national parties too have a few strong regional satraps. Narendra Modi, Shivraj Singh Chauhan, Yedurappa and Raman Singh leads the charge for BJP while YSR, Ashok Gahlot and Shiela Dishit for Congress. No wonder thus, regional aspirations are better represented than the national condition. A BJP can bank on its star Chief Ministers to get more votes and attention than party’s national President Rajnath Singh can ever get. Hence why will it not play by the local rules, even though at stake is the chair of that of national Prime Minister? Though the Congress President has a charisma of her own, but is in no way as strong as were her illustrious predecessors.

Never before has the national politics been so bereft of mass leaders. Never before has a Prime Minister finished his full tenure as a member of the Rajya Sabha. Arun Jaitley made an interesting comment. He called Manmohan Singh a night watchman, seeing of the difficult overs before the light dawns and a specialist is sent in. This is unfortunately the scene with both the national parties. While Dr Singh is guarding Rahul Gandhi, Narendra Modi is close to the heels of Advani. In fact had it been a US style election, then Modi might have even defeated his mentor in the ‘primaries’. And perhaps aware of their impending elevation both have started taking potshot at each other.

But India is no US and hence both Rahul and Modi will have to wait for their turns. The wait though is expected to end by the next general elections, (hopefully in 2014). Two fresh faces in the national consciousness will certainly heat up the political battlefield. India might again vote as a unified whole on a subject of national importance and not just be a Union of states. And Eliot’s individual will cease to be symbol of our unified whole. Let us, allow the night watchmen to end their innings… and wait for the time when the leaders are back again! Till such time …adieu!