FIGHTING THE WAR WITHIN

BJP is finally getting more footage across all networks, than the ruling Indian National Congress. But it would be safe to assume that the party would have preferred a complete media blackout instead of the kind of headlines they are making now. The party with a difference has now become the party of differences as no one knows from where the next revolt will come from. But why is it in such a state?

The reason can be best found in cricket. After AB Vajpayee & LK Advani’s golden generation, there came a series of players who would play well but could not captain the side. Sehwag, Zahir or Yuvaraj where all there but none were able to take over the reigns. And till one Dhoni came from nowhere to rescue the team, there was serious doubt over what would happen once the fab 5 left. But unlike our cricket team, BJP have not been as lucky in finding the skipper.

The leaders after the two patriarchs have only grown in their shadow. Yashwant Singha, Jaswant Singh & Murli Manohar Joshi belong to that lost generation who were important enough to get the prime portfolios but just did not have the mass base or the organizational capability to control the party. In fact all of them failed in the litmus taste of politics- winning election. Both Singha and Joshi lost their respective seats even while fighting as ministers while Jaswant Singh for most part of his life remained in Rajya Sabha. And by the time the two patriarchs are on their way out… these leaders are too old to get the mantle. But these leaders are not ready to accept that this truth and there in lies the first problem.

Thus to succeed the two tall men, the young nation would seek young leaders and hence is the glee of those who are called the second generation within the party. This space includes Rajnath Singh, Sushma Swaraj, Arun Jaitley, Narendra Modi & to some extent Venkaih Naidu and Ananth Kumar. In the late nineties the party did not nurture anyone as the first among the equals amidst them and hence the second big problem for the party is that all of them want to be the next face of the party.

Rajnath Singh, the current party president has odds stacked against him. Apart from the defeat in the Lok Sabha polls, his inability to revive the party in Uttar Pradesh is seen as a major failure. After all if a leader cannot revive the party in his home state, can he be entrusted with the job of reviving it nationally? But Rajnath too isn’t giving up. His counter strategy is to use RSS as the shield. Today he can be seen marking his attendance in the Sangh office almost everyday.

Sushma Swaraj some say had it all in her to get the top job. But first her histrionics against Sonia Gandhi in 2004 (she said she will tonsure her head, sleep on the floor and live a life on a hermit if Sonia became the PM) and then her illness which kept her out of the public space for much of the last term, can act as deterrents. Even then the deputy leader of Lok Sabha is one of the strongest contenders. LK Advani’s blessings for her would only add to her resume.

Now comes the dynamic duo of Narendra Modi and Arun Jaitley. Both blamed for the defeat in the 2009 general elections. Jaitley was the campaign manager and though CSDS survey did find out that the campaign managed by Jaitley was a shade better than congress, he too has to share his share of the blame. And Modi as the incharge of Western India could not really galvanize voters to turn the election in BJP’s favour. More over even RSS isn’t too keen on him. Both of them are lying low at this moment and waiting for the right moment to strike. Both the leaders are perceived to be close to each other. Their styles are complementary as well. While Jaitley would manage the back room and be the face of the party in Tele Studios, Modi would work on the masses.

Adding to this long list of successor is the Patriarch himself. Unlike AB Vajpayee, Advani is just refusing to vacate the space. The permanent yatri of Indian politics is a pale shadow of his past and with his grip slipping, the party needs him to make the final yatra sooner than later.

But claimant for the top spot is not the only problem. The strong right to the centre approach which propelled the party to the national reckoning in the early 90s too can do with some up gradation. The victim mentality of the majority which the saffron party capitalized to the hilt in the late 80s and the early 90s cannot be minted anymore. Mandir has been made. And this assertion in a way has cured the insecurity (if any) of what the Sangh would like to call the majority of the heartland. Now it is the time to move on. Take up greater - security, immigration, food scarcity and develop a liberal right to centre ideology on these lines. But the party isn’t too sure about this bold move. This constructs the third major problem of BJP, dilemma of what it is and what it should be.

All the problems, revolts and the infightings you will see can be sourced to the reasons mentioned above. Rajnath needed to reassert his position so he fired the softest target Jaswant Singh. A man who neither has the mass following nor had the support of the Sangh. Vasundhara Raje being asked to quit was an attempt at stifling competition. Sudhendra Kulkarni has been in and off through out the last decade and hence much should not be read into that. And the earlier salvos fired by Yashwant Singha and Murli Manohar Joshi too were attempts at tell the world “ I am the best one for the top job”. And the journalist in Arun Shourie couldn’t help but wonder at this ongoing crisis. Amidst all this the former Uttaranchal CM Khanduri too found a chance to challenge his dismissal.

At the moment there is no clear centre of gravity in the party and hence almost every one can get away after challenging the leadership. This however is no rare situation, whenever a party goes through a period of transition; such succession wars are but natural. This might not happen to a Congress because it is controlled by a particular family but a look at the world’s democracies is enough to find similarities. For the records Gordon Brown and Tony Blair didn’t have the most cordial of the relationships when Brown was moving his way up to replace Blair in England.

But this war can turn downright dangerous for the party if it is not resolved well in time for the next general elections. The war now is for the post of party president. This will be filled up by December. But what is highly questionable is whether this election will solve the proxy battles going on right now. It is highly probable that the silence of Modi and Jaitley is because they are not interested in controlling the party right now. They are probably aiming at gaining control somewhere two or three years down the line, when the tenure of the, new party chief ends. The advantage for the next president is that he will be the one to lead the party in the next general election to be held in the year 2014. So will the anarchy within the party continue till then? The game is too complex to hazard a guess

But there are a few pertinent questions which the squabbling leaders need to keep in mind. Is the party strong enough to sustain such a long internal battle? Will they be able to play a responsible opposition when their own house is on fire? How will it affect the party cadres? Do the cadres know who to follow? And above all what will be the new face of the only credible opposition force of the Indian democracy?

As of now, we all stare at the future as only time can answer these questions. Any further decline of BJP is a serious threat to the Indian democracy’s loosely bipolar structure. Let us hope for the best…succession wars are always bitter but may the best man (/woman) win and propel the party to a higher growth trajectory. Most importantly do it fast enough to be ready for the 2014 general elections. And if he/she can give the party an inclusive outlook, it would be an added bonus. Till such time…adieu!

A FRAGMENTED NATION STATE?

The time has come to choose the ruler of the nation. India will vote again in another two months and choose whom to thrust the responsibility of running the central government. But unlike the other years, this time the verdict of a billion voters has been relegated to the battle of states. The party or the coalition which picks up stakes in most number of states (with due importance given to their sizes) stands the brightest chance to rule over the Delhi Sultanate. This election has no wave, no major national issue and no starkly opposite stance taken by the two camps, namely the UPA and the NDA. It looks like the modern day nation state has begun to resemble Eliot’s modern man… fragmented.
The unitary nature of our federal structure is losing out to its constituents

Almost every election till date in the history of Indian democracy have had a major plank, person, an issue or a cluster of issues which made or broke the fortunes of the parties… 1951 was the first vote, a newly independent nation woke up to choose their destiny. 1956 was a referendum on Nehru himself. The Sino-Indo war was the theme of 1962 ( the defense minister actually ended up winning !). 1967 was an election in mourning, with both Nehru and Lal bahadur Shastri dead. For 1971 ‘India is Indira & Indira is India’ says it all. 1977, the nation voted against emergency. But Indira, the Iron Maiden made a comeback in1980. In 1984-85 (first election split in 2 years due to the violence in Assam and Punjab) huge sympathy wave for Rajiv ensured congress more than 400 seats. After Mother’s death, it was for the son stir the nation out of crisis. 1989 was powered by bofors and ‘Gali gali main shoor hai…Rajiv Gandhi Chor hai’ became the slogan of the day. In 1991, Congress won again on a sympathy vote, Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated just before the election. 1996 will remain in public memory for Hawala, Telecom and a basket full of other scams. In 1998, the theme was stability‘Party With a Difference-BJP’ became the favourite flavour. 1999 elections had a jingoistic tone, as India won the Kargil battle and of course was the charisma of Atal Vihari Vajpayee. Finally 2004 when a government asked for a receipt of its performance (India Shining), and the nation returned the favour with an eviction notice.

And now 2009- There is no dearth of issues of national significance…especially at the wake of the Global Meltdown and 26/11 attacks. But this Lok Sabha election is yet to assume a national character. Each state has an issue of its own. It is Satyam and Telengana in Andra Pradesh, Tamil sentiments in Tamil Nadu, land acquisition in Bengal, effects of economic meltdown in Gujarat and ethenic divide in Assam…etc.

But why is India’s political map so fragmented? The blame more often than not goes to the regional parties, which cash in on the local sentiments of each segment is this diverse nation called India. This trend started during the 1980s and has almost reached its zenith in these polls. But there is another aspect which is often overlooked, but has contributed heavily in decentralizing the general elections. It is no surprise that after Rajiv Gandhi there has been not a single leader with a pan Indian appeal. Atal Bihari Vajpayee did emerge as one but that was for a brief period, that too towards the fag end of his political career. Apart from that there has been none. The current Prime Ministerial candidates are clearly second or even third choice of their respective parties. Dr Manmohan Singh’s name emerged after a process of rejection, rather than selection. Mother refused the post, son was too inexperienced and Pranab Mukherjee, could have become too powerful. Hence, came the name of a non-political Dr Singh, his qualifications and the clean image was to come only after that. LK Advani too could aspire for the PM’s post only after Vajpayee retired from the game. Even now one Mr Modi is fast emerging as a potential challenger in the long run. It looks as if the two national parties simply do not have a first choice national leader, ready for the top job

Now if we go back in the history again, we will see most of the elections had the shadow of at least one pan Indian mass leader (living or dead). From 1951 to 1962, there was the towering presence of Jawahar Lal Nehru, 1967 had Nehru, Lal Bahadur Shastri ( both dead) and Indira’s presence., 1971 to 1984, had Indira Gandhi. 1977 saw Jay Prakash Narayan- Indira face off, 1984 to 1991 Rajiv Gandhi and finally AB Vajpayee in 1998, 1999 and 2004 elections.


But this time we only have strong regional figures. They are powerful but only in their own bastions. Mayawati, now that she has Uttar Pradesh in her pocket she is aiming a pan Indian presence. Though her national ambition is yet to take off fully, no one can challenge behenji in her own backyard. Karunanidhi and Jayalalitha, the awesome twosome of Tamil Nadu, they rule the state in alternate terms, dare any national party break into their citadel. Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad have Bihar to themselves, with a slice of Paswan thrown in. Bal Thakeray rules over Maharastra and for that matter Abdullahs and Mufti’s hold in Jammu and Kashmir exemplary.

Even the two national parties too have a few strong regional satraps. Narendra Modi, Shivraj Singh Chauhan, Yedurappa and Raman Singh leads the charge for BJP while YSR, Ashok Gahlot and Shiela Dishit for Congress. No wonder thus, regional aspirations are better represented than the national condition. A BJP can bank on its star Chief Ministers to get more votes and attention than party’s national President Rajnath Singh can ever get. Hence why will it not play by the local rules, even though at stake is the chair of that of national Prime Minister? Though the Congress President has a charisma of her own, but is in no way as strong as were her illustrious predecessors.

Never before has the national politics been so bereft of mass leaders. Never before has a Prime Minister finished his full tenure as a member of the Rajya Sabha. Arun Jaitley made an interesting comment. He called Manmohan Singh a night watchman, seeing of the difficult overs before the light dawns and a specialist is sent in. This is unfortunately the scene with both the national parties. While Dr Singh is guarding Rahul Gandhi, Narendra Modi is close to the heels of Advani. In fact had it been a US style election, then Modi might have even defeated his mentor in the ‘primaries’. And perhaps aware of their impending elevation both have started taking potshot at each other.

But India is no US and hence both Rahul and Modi will have to wait for their turns. The wait though is expected to end by the next general elections, (hopefully in 2014). Two fresh faces in the national consciousness will certainly heat up the political battlefield. India might again vote as a unified whole on a subject of national importance and not just be a Union of states. And Eliot’s individual will cease to be symbol of our unified whole. Let us, allow the night watchmen to end their innings… and wait for the time when the leaders are back again! Till such time …adieu!